Milwaukee Bucks pounded the Heat for four games in the playoffs. It wasn’t pretty. They played really well throughout that series. Only once did the Bucks not cover. That was Game 1 which had the Heat as six-point underdogs and it came down to the wire. Who knows what happens if the Bucks do not win that basketball. I have 0.0 idea of how this season turns out if the Bucks lost that game. What do we do from a betting perspective for this game? My plan is to not touch it all.

SPREAD
Milwaukee is favored by -2.5 points against Miami. That is a tasty number if you expect the Bucks to do what they’ve done against Miami in the past. There are a couple things working against Milwaukee in this one. First, there is the P.J. Tucker angle where he wants to beat this team. Second, it’s the Jimmy Butler angle of wanting to avenge what happened last season. While I think Milwaukee can win, I could see Miami having more energy and wanting to send a message in this one more so than Milwaukee. I can’t endorse the spread tonight with the potential of a letdown for Milwaukee. The trends all favor the Bucks, but that is due to last year’s playoffs.

TOTAL
The over/under for this game is set at 224. Milwaukee is 0-1 this year with over/unders, but they did go over the 224 number against Brooklyn. These two teams haven’t been consistent with the over/under trend. Six of the last 10 Bucks/Heat games have gone under while only four have gone over. There isn’t a dominant side here. Not that preseason matters a ton, but the Heat’s games were all low scoring so maybe a slight lean there.

DECISION
No bet from me. Look, I cannot endorse anything tonight. I get the idea of wanting to load up on the Bucks, but it almost feels like a rat line. Sometimes, you can take advantage of Vegas early when they do not know these teams, but this isn’t one of them. Just enjoy the game and don’t put any money behind it.

Charlie.