As the days continue, it’s apparent that Milwaukee is the favorite for Manny Machado. Just because a team is a favorite before a deal happens doesn’t mean they’re a lock to land them. The latest news features the Baltimore Orioles wanting Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes as the centerpiece of the deal. Reports are the Brewers would prefer to keep him out of the deal, and instead, trade Luis Ortiz. Right now, the package is not significant, but Burnes still might be too pricey. Is it worth it for Milwaukee?

Baltimore is currently playing the New York Yankees who have Gleyber Torres as one of their premier young players on their team. He was a top prospect in the Chicago Cubs system. Cubs traded Torres for Aroldis Chapman and won the World Series. Even though Torres is an All-Star and a Rookie of the Year favorite, he’s not a pitcher. If Burnes could be the ace of this rotation for years to come, do you want to give that up for a rental?

Here’s the thing about pitchers though, they’re so unpredictable. Forget the mental stuff, there are countless examples of pitchers who teams believed to be ‘aces’ that didn’t get to that level, or it took some time. Trevor Bauer is an ace on the Indians rotation and potential Cy Young candidate. People thought he could be that in the minors, but it still took more time than expected to develop plus a new team. Zach Wheeler, an ‘ace’-like pitcher who nearly got dealt to Milwaukee, battled through injuries and is just starting to his stride. Burnes might be an ace, but it could take three to five years to really know if that’s possible.

We’ll see if David Stearns is able to pull off a Machado deal without Burnes. I’m skeptical at best that a deal doesn’t go through the Brewers young pitcher, but Stearns can work his magic.