Milwaukee was the first city in Wisconsin to get hit hard with COVID-19. In the first few months of the pandemic, Milwaukee became the real hot spot for the state. Madison had some issues but not at the levels of Milwaukee. Therefore, things shut down for a few weeks. In early June, Milwaukee opened back up at 25% then fully around the Fourth of July. While COVID-19 is raging across other parts of Wisconsin, Milwaukee is staying pretty stable. That did not stop Governor Tony Evers to push back indoor activities to 25% across the state. This could be a heartbreaking death sentence for restaurants and bars across the Milwaukee area. This is a major blow to small business owners as well as the city’s growing food and drink appeal.

The decision here to make sweeping changes is consistent with what Governor Evers has done throughout the time of COVID. Instead of singling out certain areas, it is the rule everywhere. To me, that feels like an issue. Milwaukee should have been shut down in May, but other places such as the Fox Valley could have stayed open. The same goes for this ruling. Why make sweeping changes versus looking at the data where cases and hospitalizations are skyrocketing? There is an assumption that people in the areas affected will travel the state, but still, that feels unrealistic at best.

If bars and restaurants can hold on for one month, they might be okay. Who knows how they’ll make that happen though. If we learned anything from New York/New Jersey, the Sun Belt, and other hard-hit places, the virus burns out at some point. Once we can identify the peak, things will start to bottom out. If the Week of 9/20 was the peak, Wisconsin will be in good shape by the end of the month. If the peak still hasn’t happened, there will be a two to four week lag time post-peak. It is hard for me to think this ruling from Evers will last past the month.

Could Milwaukee go against it though? Mayor Tom Barret acknowledged yesterday that it could change things in his plan to ‘Move Milwaukee Forward.’ Barret could cite the COVID cases in the city that have remained stable but in an abundance of caution, knock capacity down to 50%, or 75% inside. Barrett listened to these same bar and restaurant owners when they asked for a mask mandate. My assumption is they’ll ask for different regulations. We’ll how far that goes.

As someone who loves Milwaukee, this does feel like a tipping point. A city that continues to grow and be special might be taking several steps back to what it once was.

Charlie.