Murph's 12th Annual Packers' NFL Draft Draft Guide

Murph’s 12th Annual Packers’ NFL Draft Draft Guide

Apr 29, 2021 by Charlie in Green Bay Packers

The annual NFL player selection meeting, one of the greatest events in American sports, rivaling Super Bowl week, NBA All-Star Weekend, the Kentucky Derby, Masters weekend, and 1990’s major prizefights. An event that has built the backbone of the Green Bay Packers for the better part of 30 years and my entire Packers cheering life.
I have been writing draft previews or hosting draft parties unofficially since the mid-2000s for my friends and family, fantasizing about how I would make my way eventually inside 1265 Lombardi Avenue’s now-famous draft room. I am not a blogger, not a writer, nor a talking head, not even a draft “insider” but other than a Packers’ game day, there is not something I feel more juiced about as a sports fan than the NFL Draft.

Four weeks into recovering from right ACL surgery, my prep rivals Mel Kiper Jr’s. The only thing missing is his hair. For those that await this preview like Christmas morning, know that Santa is ready to deliver and I am the most dialed-in version of myself since I was 16 or 17 heading into the draft.

The 2021 NFL Draft will go down as one of the most iconic, stemming from five QB’s potentially going in the top 10, no medical records for many draftees, canceled NFL combine, drafting 20 year old’s that haven’t played football in 15 months, and salary cap-strapped franchises due to the pandemic fallout; add in the host city Cleveland, Ohio previously celebrated the NFL Draft like it was their Super Bowl for 20 years and god damn I’m still upset I was playing pick-up hoops at 30 years old.

The Packers season starts when they go on the clock Thursday night, potentially even when a team in the late teens do (Raiders, Football Team, and Dolphins trade up targets). We successfully maneuvered our fourth straight offseason and not the last of the national media trying to ship Aaron Rodgers of out town. Laughable at this point for me, but Super Bowl or bust is how this team has operated since 1995. I have forgotten last January against TB12, we cannot dwell on the past or point fingers.

Green Bay will be drafting where they should be, the end of each round, and I feel in a major position to take advantage of a team looking to trade back into the first round specifically. The offensive line, linebacker, and secondary depth in this draft are stupendous and match up exactly with the infusion of talent the Packers need.
Armed with 10 picks, “Trader Murph” would like them to look into trying to gain more inventory in the top 100 selections. I expect Packers GM Brian Gutenkunst to be nervous about picking opt-out players or ones with medical issues. In a perfect world, we leverage some of our 2022 & 2023 picks and try to bait another team into thinking they will be valuable in the future as we have bottomed out. We will see how much the front office sticks to their athleticism RAS score requirement, 2/3’s of the players Gutey has previously drafted have scored above 8.

Justin Fields is going to be the guy everyone missed on, one of the first-round SEC receivers will not pan out, the Bears won’t find their next QB and Vikings might be the surprise team to pick one Day 1 or 2. Jerry Jones will make a head-scratching pick, but pronounce to the world he was their number guy all along. Book your flights to Hollywood for February 2022, going to be a fun Green and Gold ride.

Five Positions of Need:
Offensive Line: After losing starters in back-to-back off-season’s that were near all-world to the Chargers of LA in Bryan Bulaga and Corey Linsley, keeping Aaron Rodgers upright is invaluable. More important than growing pains with a rookie receiver who might not know to run certain routes at 10.2 yards and look back-shoulder. Stocked with talent from the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and Notre Dame specifically, the Packers will look to potentially add a Day 1 starter. Jenkins (OKST), Little (Stanford), and Radunz (NDSU) should be within range at 29. Ideally, I’d like to cash in on more value by trading back or address in the second round and third round. Players like Cosmi (Texas), Leatherwood (Alabama), Mayfield (Michigan), Meinerz(Whitewater), Humphrey(OKLA), or Eichenberg (Notre Dame) all will be available on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.

Middle Linebacker: The Packers have never had a game-changing sideline to sideline Brian Urlacher linebacker machine in my lifetime. Our defense needs another playmaker alongside Kenny, Z-Smith, and Jaire. I am off my early-offseason fascination with Penn State’s Micah Parsons due to coverage concerns, he also should be a top 15 pick. Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah would be a dream, but we would need to trade up. Jamin Davis dominated the SEC for just one year, but I do feel this is a great position to target in round three or four with value.

Cornerback: The Ron Wolf in me wants to repeat the 1999 NFL Draft after getting scorched by Randy Moss for an entire season and draft cornerbacks three straight rounds to kick off the draft. Thankfully, this draft is stacked with solid coverage corners like Northwestern’s Greg Newsome who could be around in the late first round. Adding two corners I think is a must and there will be plenty in the second through fifth rounds including Kentucky’s Kelvin Joseph, Syracuse’s Ifeatu Melifonwu, and Georgia’s package of Eric Stokes & Tyson Campbell. I will be disappointed without one of those five names.

Defensive Line: Labeled one of the worst interior defensive line drafts in years, but a major Packers need. Outside of Alabama’s Christian Barmore falling, this is a position of need but one that will not be addressed until the third round or later. Texas A&M’s Bobby Brown, NC State’s Alim McNeil, and La Tech’s Milton Williams are favorites of mine, anyone to get Dean Lowry off the field. Outside of Kenny Clark, this is a position the Packers have struggled at drafting as of late. Kenosha product and Iowa lineman Daviyon Nixon would be a nice story to write home about.

Wide Receiver: I do not drink enough to not list this position 😊. We are not drafting Purdue’s Rondale Moore or Florida Kadarius Toney. We have never invested that highly in unpolished gadget wide receivers. Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman has drawn Davante Adams comparisons and a lot of late-week buzz, I have always believed he will be gone. Elijah Moore of Ole’ Miss is the perfect slot WR we have missed since Randall Cobb fell out of his prime. After those two names, outside of UNC’s Dyami Brown, I would brace yourself for this position not to be addressed until Day 3. Saturday could be littered with flyers like Michigan’s Nico Collins, Iowa’s Ihmir Smith Marsette, South Carolina’s Shi Smith, and Florida’s Trevon Grimes.

Murph’s 1st Round Big Board for the Packers:
1. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
2. Elijah Moore-WR-Ole Miss
3. Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
4. Greg Newsome-DB-Northwestern
5. Jaelan Phillips-EDGE-Miami

Round 1 Bets:
-Total Round 1 traded within Top 10-Over 1 ½ +150
-Cornerbacks Drafted in 1st round-Under 4 ½ +120
-Wide Receivers Drafted in 1st round-Under 4 ½ +225
-Dallas 1st pick-Offense- +300
-3rd pick overall-Justin Fields +400
-Chicago will not draft a QB in 1st round -225
-Under .5 RB’s drafted in 1st round +200

My projected Packers 1st round picks since 2012:
-2012: Shea McClellin(28)
-2013: Sheldon Richardson (26)
-2014: Eric Ebron (21)
-2015: Randy Gregory (30)
-2016: Robert Nkemdiche (27)
-2017: Derek Barnett (29)
-2018: Denzel Ward (14)
-2019: Nick Bosa (12)-(As have in previous years with Eric Berry, for example, was willing to trade farm to move up for Bosa)
-2020: Justin Jefferson (26)…. (Still sad, but I believe in Jordan Love)

Murph’s Wishlist for Day 2 and beyond that have not already been mentioned:
Players highlighted over the years here: A.J Brown, Miles Sanders, Andy Isabella, Juju Smith-Schuster, Micah Hyde, Zach Ertz, Terron Armstead, Tyrann Mathieu, Doug Martin, Cordy Glenn, Janoris Jenkins, Jaylon Johnson, Damien Lewis, Tyler Johnson & Michael Pittman Jr.

Ambry Thomas-Defensive Back-Michigan
-Paulson Adebo-Defensive Back-Stanford
-Robert Rochell-Defensive Back-Central Arkansas
-Marco Wilson-Defensive Back-Florida
-Tauluna Hufanga-Safety-USC
-Divine Diablo-Safety-Virginia Tech
-Jamien Sherwood-LB/Safety-Auburn
-Chazz Surratt-Linebacker-North Carolina
-Barron Browning-Linebacker-Ohio State
-Derrick Barnes-Linebacker-Purdue
-Payton Turner -Edge-Houston
-Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
-Shaka Toney-Edge-Penn State
-D’Ante Smith-Offensive Line-East Carolina
-Cole Van Lanen-Offensive Line-Wisconsin
-Kendrick Green-Offensive Guard-Illinois
-Robert Hainsey-Offensive Tackle-Notre Dame
-Seth Williams-Wide Receiver-Auburn
-Demetric Felton-RB/WR-UCLA
-Simi Fehoko-Wide Receiver-Stanford
-Chuba Hubbard-Running Back-Oklahoma State
-Pooka Williams-Running Back-Kansas State
-Kenneth Gainwell-Running Back-Memphis

Famous Murph Draft archives, moments and takes:

What turn for me in 24 hours, fully behind Jordan Love being a fire breathing 🐉 by 2025 ready to be released into the wild. Gutey did put his job on the line though last night much sooner than expected. https://t.co/OYuMkDpFlA

— Nolan Murphy (@TheNolanMurphy) April 24, 2020