There is a phrase in gambling that is true more times than not… ‘Vegas knows something.’ Whenever a line or an over/under number feels a bit off, you know that is the work of the bookmakers. It is their goal to get equal money on both sides as well. Vegas would not put a number too high or too low in fear of getting pounded in that direction. They’re not idiots and no, you cannot outsmart Vegas. All of this makes the Brewers’ over/under 85 wins very interesting. How can a team whose fans think they lost the offseason be at a near-playoff level win total? Let’s investigate.

One reason could be Vegas is sick and tired of losing money on the Brewers. In the last two years, the Brewers have gone over their win total. In 2019, the Brewers’ over/under closed at 86.5 wins, and they finished by winning 89. 2018 was no different. The Brewers smashed their over/under number by winning 96 games. The bookmakers could be intentionally setting the line high to avoid getting hurt again, although, they are expecting some to ride the over. My guess is the Brewers will close in March around 84.5 with the public being on the under.

Another reason for the perceived higher win total could be the balance inside the NL Central. St. Louis has the highest over/under win total at 88 wins, Chicago Cubs are next at 86.5 wins and the Cincinnati Reds check in lower than the Brewers at 81 wins. Most might be surprised by the Reds’ total, but it’s clear that Vegas sees some flaws in the Reds despite winning all the headlines this offseason. Also, Cubs and Cardinals will always be elevated a bit due to both being public baseball teams. This division is entirely up for grabs, and Vegas knows it.

It is too early to know if this is a win for David Stearns and company when it comes to their offseason plan. But from the gambling numbers, it looks like Stearns understood the division. He knew what was needed to compete and didn’t overpay on contracts that would look horrible in two years. This will be an interesting post to revisit come August or September.

Charlie.